The black storm impacts the Mexican territory this Saturday, April 11, with rainfall exceeding 70 millimeters per hour. The National Meteorological Service confirms that this phenomenon, together with a high trough and low pressure channels, will cause flooding, hailstorms and electrical discharges in multiple regions of the country.
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Phenomenology of the black storm and the drastic change in climate
Although the term black storm lacks an official classification within the technical lexicon of the National Meteorological Service (SMN), its use has spread in the public domain to identify torrential rain events that exceed the threshold of 70 millimeters in a single hour. This water intensity generates a drastic reduction in visibility and immediate collapses in road infrastructure and urban drainage systems due to the volume of water displaced in short periods.
For this Saturday, April 11, the interaction of various weather systems establishes a highly dangerous scenario. An upper trough over the northwest, in combination with a dry line in the north and the subtropical jet stream, will unleash very heavy punctual rains and the possible formation of whirlwinds in the north and northeast of Mexico.
Geographic distribution of rainfall and risk areas
Atmospheric instability, fueled by the entry of humidity from the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico, extends the probability of showers to the east, center and south of the country.
- Very heavy rains (50 to 75 mm): Coahuila, specifically in the northern region.
- Heavy rain (25 to 50 mm): Chihuahua (north and northeast), Nuevo León (center and south), Tamaulipas (west), San Luis Potosí, Guanajuato (north), Querétaro (north), Hidalgo (south), State of Mexico (north), Tlaxcala (north), Puebla (north) and Veracruz (center).
- Shower intervals (5 to 25 mm): Baja California, Mexico City, Morelos, Guerrero, Oaxaca and Chiapas.
- Isolated precipitation (0.1 to 5 mm): Sonora, Durango, Zacatecas, Aguascalientes, Michoacán, Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana Roo.
In Chihuahua and the north of Coahuila, vigilance is extreme due to the configuration of winds with strong gusts that could lead to whirlwinds, affecting safety in open areas and road sections.
Geographic Distribution of Precipitation
Atmospheric instability due to moisture ingress (Pacific and Gulf)
Risk of Whirlwinds
Surveillance Zones
ChihuahuaNorthern Coahuila
Strong gusts on road sections and open areas.
Precipitation Intensity
Very Strong (50-75 mm) COA
Strong (25-50 mm) CHIH, NL, TAM…
Showers (5-25 mm) CDMX, MEX, GTO…
Isolated rain (0.1 to 5 mm)
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The Valley of Mexico faces highly vulnerable conditions due to humidity saturation of 43% and winds that will range between 6 and 30 km/h. In the country’s capital, the forecast indicates a partly cloudy sky with a 30% chance of rain, where temperatures will fluctuate between 15°C and 25°C.
The urban infrastructure of the following districts is under preventive observation in case of possible flooding:
Despite the storm warnings, a heat wave remains active in specific sectors of the Pacific coast and the south of the territory. This climate disparity generates an environment of high operational complexity for civil protection systems.
