In the last valuation map he drew Allaria for the local market, banks are among the bets with the greatest potential for growth towards the end of 2026. The report places Galicia Financial Group (GGAL), Macro Bank (BMA), BBVA Argentina (BBAR) and Supervielle Group (SUPV) in a price zone that, under the broker’s eyes, appears clearly behind its target values.
The photo draws attention because it appears after balance sheets that, in several cases, They were not brilliant in terms of pure net profit. In fact, Galicia and Supervielle They closed the quarter with losses, while Macro and BBVA showed profits, although crossed by restructuring, higher cost of bad debts, inflation and changes in the valuation of public securities. However, the underlying reading of the report does not stop at the final number of a specific quarter, but rather focuses on valuation, profitability recomposition, capacity to generate business and rerating margin if the financial system manages to leave this transition stage behind.
In this scheme, Galicia appears as the name with the highest estimated total return within the group, followed by Supervielle, Macro and BBVA. The difference between the current price and the target that Allaria projects also draws attention. The broker calculates that
- GGAL could climb from $6,890 to $15,000
- BMA from $11,590 to $22,000
- BBAR from $8,060 to $15,500
- SUPV from $2,848 to $5,900
By adding expected dividends, the estimated total return for 2026 reaches 119.9% in Galicia, 107.2% in Supervielle, 94.6% in Macro and 93.8% at BBVA. In all cases, the recommendation of the City broker is Buy.
Galicia, the favorite among banks
The case of Galicia Financial Group is probably the most representative of this logic. The holding lost $83,544 million in the last quarter of 2025, below what the market expected, with a ROE of -4.3%, affected mainly by a worse performance of Naranja Other Comprehensive Results by $200,567 million, an accounting line that helped rebuild equity after the red that had left the previous quarter.
In the annual consolidated, Galicia ended 2025 with a revenue of $196,046 million, equivalent to a ROE of 2.5%, that ascend to 4.2% if restructuring expenses linked to HSBC. The sensitive point was in the quality of the portfolio. In the bank, the ratio delinquency rose of 5.8% to 6.8%, while in individuals it escalated to 14.3% from 3.2% from the previous year. Also verified was a drop of 10% quarterly in the dollar portfolio, which stood at US$4,928 million, while the loans in pesos fell 1% against the previous quarter, although they still showed a improvement of 19% year-on-year.
Even with this deterioration, the entity showed strengths that explain why Allaria maintains its purchase recommendation. He result net interest grew 23% quarterly until $1,164,574 million, leveraged by greater contribution of loans, securities and a decrease in the cost of funding. The commissions rose 4% in the quarter until $278,489 million, while the price difference advanced 29% to $98,190 million. That is to say, even with a demanding photo in arrears and provisions, The bank continues to display relevant commercial machinery.
For Allaria, that mix between franchise, scale and compressed valuation is enough to justify a price target of $15,000, which implies a potential increase of 117.7% just by price compared to the current $6,890. If you add a estimated dividend yield of 2.2%, he total return comes to 119.9%, the highest in the entire banking universe covered by the broker.
Macro and BBVA
Macro Bank closed the quarter with a revenue of $100,079 million, against one loss of $35,663 million in the previous period. He ROE passed to 7.3% from -2.6%, although in the middle there were expenses for restructuring $82,950 million. In the accumulated of the year, the entity won $290,704 million, with a ROE of 5.1%, what would have been 6.6% without those extraordinary charges.
The bank showed a credit expansion in weights 2% quarterly and 36% year-on-year, until $8,366,630 million, with an improvement in market share. The growth of deposits in pesos also stood out, which they rose 3% compared to the previous quarter and 18% compared to the previous year, with a 17% jump quarterly in fixed terms. In parallel, the net interest result advanced 13% until $836,545 million, while the result from measuring instruments at fair value is shot 973% due to the recovery of public securities, a fact that made it clear how much the sovereign debt position still weighs on bank balance sheets.
The other side was again in the blackberry, although with a much more contained deterioration than in other competitors, here, the NPL went from 3.2% to 3.9%, with 120% coverage, and the consumer segment worsened 4.3% to 5.2%, while the corporate portfolio even improved.
In valuation, Allaria sees BMA in $22,000 towards the end of 2026, compared to a current price of $11,590. That supposes a upside of 89.8%, which extends to 94.6% by adding an estimated dividend of 4.8%, the highest among the four banks analyzed.
BBVA Argentina, instead, earned $59,339 million in the last quarter of 2025, above the previous period and with a ROE of 6.5%, while in the accumulated annual period it obtained $267,420 million, equivalent to a ROE of 7.3%. In this case, there was a strong contribution from Other Comprehensive Results, which went to a profit of $229,180 million thanks to the recovery in the price of public securities valued along those lines.
The loans to the private sector in pesos grew 9.4% quarterly and 37% year-on-year until $11,449,501 million, with a special boost from pledges after the incorporation of the FCA Compañía Financiera portfolio. Credits in dollars also grew, and loans now represent 57% of the asset, against 51% from a year ago, a dynamic that suggests greater weight of the traditional business on the balance sheet.
He NPL rose from 3.3% to 4.2%, especially due to the worsening of the retail portfolio, which went from 5.7% to 7%. Added to this was an increase in 31% quarterly in the charge for bad debts, which reached $297,336 million.
Even so, Allaria maintains a buy recommendation for BBAR and place the target price at $15,500, almost double the current value of $8,060. The estimated total return is located at 93.8%, including a dividend yield of 1.5%.
Supervielle, the most punished
If Galicia is the favorite of the report, Supervielle It appears as the bank where the market still seems most skeptical about the recovery. The entity lost $19,525 million in the quarter, with a ROE of -7.7%although it improved significantly compared to the red of the previous period. During the year it accumulated a loss of $48,582 million, equivalent to an ROE of -4.6%, very far from 15.7% which had shown in 2024.
The deterioration is explained, on the one hand, by the ratio of late payment, that went up from 3.9% to 5%, with a stronger jump in the retail business, where the NPL it advanced from 7.1% to 9.2%. On the other hand, the charge for bad debt grew 72% quarterly until $108,337 millionin part due to the update of macroeconomic assumptions for the expected loss model.
But at the same time improvements appeared that allow us to understand why Allaria does not get out of the story. The loans in pesos grew 12.3% quarterly and 31% year-on-year until $3,177,400 million, with a strong push from corporate lines. He net interest result leap 47.4% until $244,022 million, helped by higher income from loans and securities, along with a drop in the cost of funding.
Furthermore, the public sector exposure fell and represented 19.6% of the asset, against 24% from a year ago, a retreat that the market usually rewards when looking at the quality of the balance sheet.
With that painting, Allaria plans to SUPV a target price of $5,900, compared to the current $2,848. The price upside is around 107.2%, since the stock does not have estimated dividends for 2026 in the broker’s table.
What the City is seeing in Argentine banks
For all this, the market conclusion, then, does not involve discussing whether the balance sheets were impeccable, because They weren’t. Pass by if the current punishment already incorporated too much pessimism compared to banks that continue to expand credit, sustain interest income and, in some cases, still distribute dividends.
Under this logic, the City believes that the Argentine financial sector is still did not exhaust its journey and that, between now and the end of 2026, Galicia, Macro, BBVA and Supervielle They could have much more to give than what their boards reflect today.
