When the crypto market had been in anesthesia mode (no volume, no narrative, no clear direction), a single geopolitical piece of news was enough to shake everything.
Bitcoin jumped to $72,000 this Tuesdaywith cryptocurrencies and US stock futures rising in tandem after President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran. The price of oil plummeted more than 10%and the market read the signal for what it was: less inflation, less pressure on risk assets, more investor appetite.
Bitcoin exceeded US$70,000 for the first time since March 26. Ethereum also reacted, moving and surpassing the u$s2,200 and reaching its highest level since March 18. The movement was fast, clean and brutal for those who bet on the downside.
Why Bitcoin is going up
The rise is not only a product of optimism. There was pure mechanics behind it: a short squeeze massive that amplified every real purchasing dollar. Bitcoin rise skyrocketed almost $600 million in leveraged futures settlements in cryptocurrencies, most coming from short sellers, signaling strong bullish momentum.
The mechanism is known, but for some reason always effective. “When the price rises quickly, bearish traders with open positions are forced to repurchase the asset to close,” explains analyst Lucía Ferrer to iProUP. That forced buyback adds additional demand in a very short time and can lead to sharp movements, especially when liquidity is limited in certain price ranges.
The heat maps showed a concentration of possible settlements between US$72,200 and US$73,500. If the price exceeds US$72,000 with momentum, those positions are automatically liquidated, generating forced purchases that raise the price and trigger new liquidations. That, precisely, is what happened.
Lucía Ferrer, a crypto market strategist based in Buenos Aires, points out that the rally has livelihood but also has a clear roof: “BTC had been accumulating huge short pressure for weeks. What we saw was a release of that tension, not a reversal of trend. To talk about a structural change we need to see Bitcoin sustain itself above US$74,000 with genuine volumenot with forced liquidations”.
Ferrer adds that the key resistance levels are well defined: “The first serious obstacle is between US$72,000 and US$73,500. If you overcome it with conviction, the next reasonable target is US$75,000. But if the volume does not support, this rebound can quickly become a trap for late buyers.”
Classic technical analysis, however, is not so optimistic about the medium-term outlook. Iván Bolé, financial analyst, warns that the bottom structure remains bearish: “From US$126,200 it has been forming fall-range, fall-range, fall-range. There is no reversal. The chart continues to show bearish continuity“.
“A first bearish movement would take us to US$59,000-US$60,000and after a minor rebound, we could reach levels between US$49,000 and US$52,000and even US$46,000-US$47,000“. And he anticipates where that scenario would be invalidated: “Until US$74,700, the bearish structure remains intact“
His conclusion is pragmatic: “For now, caution. Observe the development, which remains bearish, and see how the price reacts upon reaching the US$60,000which for the moment are the current support, although at clear risk.”
Bitcoin price: the two key levels
With the price hovering around US$72,000 this Wednesdaythe two critical levels are well defined:
- To the upside, immediate resistance is between US$72,000 and US$73,500where short positions accumulate that, if liquidated in a cascade, can towards u$s74,000 or u$s75,000. Get over US$74,700 with volume would be the signal the bulls need to declare that the trend has changed
- On the downside, the most watched support is US$70,000. If it loses that level with a daily close, the next reference floor is around US$67,000-US$68,000. Below, the scenario described by classical technical analysis places US$59,000-US$60,000 as a possible destination before a larger rebound
What happened this week was real: price, liquidation volume, correlation with global risk assets. None of that is noise.
But there is a fundamental difference between a bounce and a reversal. The first is a correction within a downtrend. The second is a regime change. For now, the technical data points to the former.
The ceasefire gave oxygen back to BTC and gave it a catalyst with a name and surname. But if that agreement falls apart, the market will not have its own safety net. It depends on the geopolitics, the volume and what the real buyers (not those forced by liquidations) are present in sufficient quantity.
Bolé tells iProUP bluntly: “The word lies with the volume and the buyers. If they don’t show up, the falls could be greater.” Ferrer, along the same lines, summarizes it like this: “He who buys today in US$72,000 without stop loss and without a clear thesis you are not investing. “He’s gambling.”
The difference between both things, in this market, can be expensive.
