March left a table of returns that forced several City investors to look more than twice. Among the actions, papers linked to the energy business, financial companies and an explosive case such as Satellogic stood out. In fixed income, there were also clear winners within the universe of CER bonds, that once again caught interest in the middle of the oil jump, the inflationary discussion and the coverage facing a still tense international scenario.
The big winners of the month were Satellogic (SATL) with a rise of 84.67%, YPF with 34.5%, View with 33.13%, VALUE with 30.71% and PBR with 27.32%. On the side of bonds in pesos, the TZXM7 with 8.5%, TZXD7 with 8.3% and X30N6 with 6.9%.
Reduced to concrete numbers, a theoretical investment of $100,000 at the beginning of March in each of these assets would have left this result at the end of the month:
- Satellogic (SATL) +84.67% turned a $100,000 investment into $184,670, with a profit of $84,670.
- YPF (YPFD) +34.5% allowed that initial $100,000 to escalate to $134,500, which implies a profit of $34,500.
- View (VIST) +33.13% raised the capital from $100,000 to $133,130, leaving one positive difference of $33,130.
- VALO (VALO) +30.71% pushed the investment up to $130,710, with a return of $30,710.
- PBR (PBR) +27.32% made the $100,000 climb $127,320, which translates into a profit of $27,320.
- TZXM7 +8.5% took a placement of $100,000 until $108,500, with a advance of $8,500.
- TZXD7 +8.3% transformed that $100,000 into $108,300, with a balance in favor of $8,300.
- X30N6 +6.9% closed the month with a value of $106,900 for those who had invested $100,000, that is, a improvement of $6,900.
With that photo on the table, the market began to focus and the question is no longer just which were the big winners of March, but What to do now with those assets after such a marked rally.
Energy, the block that shone the most
A good part of the most important increases of the month are explained by the oil behavior and for the geopolitical premium that the market began to incorporate before the conflict in the Middle East. There they were in the front row YPF, Vista and PBR.
For Rocco Abalsamo, financial advisor, the sector was one of the big beneficiaries of March precisely because the market discounted that the tension could last longer. In that sense, he explained that “the energy sector was one of the most benefited sectors of the month” due to the expectation that the war would not find a quick solution.
That look helps to understand why the analysis now changes, if part of the increase responded to a conflict scenario longer and firmer oila geopolitical decompression can play in reverse. For this reason, Abalsamo is already leaning towards an approach more conservative and maintains that “most likely we recommend taking profits in these assets”.
The vision of Augusto Mamone, research agent at Numera, introduces a nuance given that he does not believe that oil will automatically return to the pre-crisis values. As he stated, “I hardly see oil returning to pre-conflict levels,” although he clarifies that, if there is a quick resolution, adjustment could be accelerated.
Within that lot, in addition, he especially distinguished Petrobras. Regarding that role, he maintained that “it is a company that naturally pays a lot of dividends”, has “little capex” and a scale that It allows maintaining good performance even beyond the specific episode.
CER bonds also gained
In fixed income, March also left clear winners such as CER bonds TZXM7, TZXD7 and X30N6which reflected a more intense search for coverage facing an inflation that the market began to recalibrate upwards, partly due to the impact of oil on the cost structure.
Abalsamo highlighted that the strength of these bonds was linked to the discount of higher implicit inflations. As he explained, “a fairly strong rise in oil would raise the price of many products,” which in turn impacts inflation. However, He also warned that this thesis loses consistency if the conflict in the Middle East is not prolonged.
And there appears one of the central points of his analysis since it indicates that the implicit inflations for 2026 today they look demanding compared to private screenings, so he no longer sees so much attraction in the CER section. His conclusion is that “we don’t like what CER bonds would be today” and? prefers “fixed rate, specifically the long tranche”, with maturities between January and May 2027 and, specifically, the T30A7.
The posture of Nazarene Taus, portfolio manager Cocos Capital, follow this line since does not propose a total exit of the CER 2027 tranche, but rather finer risk management after a very positive month.
His gaze on TZXM7 and TZXD7 is that “they still have arguments to stay in the portfolio” for those who already have them, because short-term inflation continues to show upward risk, The carry remains interesting and there could still be a limited margin of real compression. In any case, he does not ignore what he has already won. That is why he emphasizes that, “after close gains to the 8% in a month”, looks reasonable “begin to partially take profits and diversify weight risk“.
This partial taking of profits does not imply running away from the CER, but it does imply starting to rebalance and, along those lines, Taus says that he sees “a gradual rotation towards hard dollar sovereigns, as AL29 and AL30″, since they add coverage in the event of a possible exchange rate adjustment and They allow you to capture attractive returns directly in dollars.
X30N6
If there was an instrument of the CER block where the market vision appears less enthusiastic, it was X30N6, there, Taus makes a concrete difference compared to the Boncer 2027.
His conclusion is that “it seems to have fulfilled its tactical function”, because in the shortest leg of CER real rates They already operate at required levels. Under that idea, the remaining attractiveness depends almost exclusively on whether March and April come back to show higher inflation to which they had been discounting the break-evens.
The warning is that this margin can be exhausted quickly and, in fact, Taus emphasizes that “once that data is incorporated, the upside runs out quickly“.
Mamone complements this idea and explains that in this type of bonds there is a lag in capturing inflation and that detail changes the analysis a lot after such a strong rise. At that point, he warned that “these bonds capture inflation” with “a lag of 45 days or so,” so part of the coverage that the investor was looking for has already been paid.
Therefore, he adds another call to attention: “if this inflation is not maintained over time you can hardly capture profits. That is to say, it is one thing to take advantage of the initial shock and quite another to be late to the trade when The market has already paid for a good part of that coverage.
What to do now with March winners
Beyond the nuances between the three specialists, there is a point at which points of view begin to align. After the strong increases in March, the idea of rotate a part of the portfolio towards dollar assets.
Taus puts it directly by mentioning AL29 and AL30 as a destination for this diversification, Abalsamo, although he prefers to talk about a long fixed rate, also makes it clear that the CER trade lost its appeal and Mamone goes in the same direction when he states that, measured in dollars, these assets have already had a very important improvement in a context of almost immobile exchange rate.
His conclusion is forceful: “Now, measuring profitability in dollars, the rise in these assets combined with a zero change in the exchange rate, combines with the fact that sIt’s more interesting to stop at hard currency“
This reasoning explains why March stopped being just a story of winners and became a discussion on how to manage profits.
The photo left by the experts does not point to a liquidation or massive profit-taking, but neither does it point to continuing to bet without reviewing prices. In energy, the predominant view it’s about taking profits or at least lower exposure after a rally very tied to the geopolitical front. In CER 2027, the recommendation varies since they can still keep in portfolioalthough with a partial reduction and one greater diversification towards dollar bonds like him AL29 either AL30.
In X30N6, On the other hand, the consensus is much colder, especially because analysts understand that A good part of the journey would have already been left behind. Unlike the Boncer 2027, which still have some margin to remain in the portfolio, in this shorter bond the idea that the prize has already been largely captured begins to weigh and that from these levels the additional potential seems quite limited.
