In the last six monthsthe shares of an Argentine company accumulate a extraordinary profit of 100% in dollarsboth on its own merits and due to the international context derived from the war in the Middle East. This is Vista Energy (VIST), an Argentine company born in 2017 by the former YPF Miguel Galuccio, dedicated to the exploitation of oil and gas in Vaca Muerta and listed on Wall Street.
That is, in a short time it generated a profit that It does not offer any other assets.
Vista Energy shares today are around US$70 and have accumulated a rise of more than 40% in dollars so far in 2026.
For reference, it almost quadruples the movement that gold experienced throughout the year, considered the best global investment in recent months.
Added to this is that the main US indices, such as the Nasdaq 100, are advancing in the red in 2026.
Much of this boost in Vista Energy’s price occurred last March: in that period alone, these assets rose 28% as a result of the conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil trade flows.
In fact, before the war, in late February, Morgan Stanley had raised the price target for Vista Energy shares to $74 for the next 12 months. In theory, this implies that it would still have a potential increase of close to 7% in dollars.
The expansion and growth of this company was meteoric, since in just nine years of existence it achieved solid results. Its shares have even risen 2,500% in the last five years.
Last year, Vista Energy showed a “solid operating performance“, marked by a significant growth in production volumes as a consequence of the consolidation of the acquisition of Petronas E&P Argentina SA (PEPASA) and having reached a 50% stake in the La Amarga Chica block since April.
“This strategic incorporation boosted total production to 118,018 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), a year-on-year growth of 81%, consolidating Vista as the largest independent oil producer in Argentina,” says a survey by Research for Traders (RfT).
That is, through this acquisition there was a significant increase in total productionespecially crude oil. “This expansion was a result of the continued development of Vaca Muerta, particularly at Bajada del Palo Oeste and La Amarga Chica, along with 24 new wells connected in the quarter,” the report details. La Amarga Chica has 247 productive wells, while PEPASA generated income of US$909 million.
According to a JP Morgan report, Vista closed 2025 with solid operating performance and in line with its objectives, after ending the year in the high range of its production guide and ratifying its goal of reaching 140,000 equivalent barrels per day in 2026.
In the fourth quarter of last year, the production reached 135,000 barrels“with strong increases both quarterly and year-on-year, driven by the connection of new wells. At an annual level, the average slightly exceeded forecasts, consolidating a trajectory of sustained growth that, according to the company, will be maintained with a plan of between 80 and 90 new connections during 2026.”
In parallel, JP Morgan adds that the oil company achieved a significant cost reduction, with a cost lifting of US$4.1 per barrel in the quarter, favored by operational efficiencies and logistical improvements, although it maintained its annual guidance at US$4.4.
“In terms of strategy, Vista is advancing with the acquisition of Bandurria Sur and Bajo del Toro, which will provide additional production and synergies, with closing scheduled for the second quarter of 2026,” he points out.
The firm also indicated that, even in a scenario of higher crude oil prices, “it will prioritize capital discipline, focusing on shareholder returns and selective M&A opportunities, while maintaining an aligned and cooperative relationship with YPF in their shared operational areas,” concludes JP Morgan.
Among the latest news, the company has just announced to the market that it has successfully completed the pricing of its negotiable obligations for a nominal value of US$500 million. This international financial operation marked a milestone in the company’s capitalization strategy for the current year. The securities issued will accrue an interest rate of 7.875% and have a scheduled maturity of 2038.
What to do with Vista Energy Stock
At this time, as with the rest of the oil companies, Vista Energy shares are not only favored by its solid performance and growth, but also by the strong boost in oil in March as a result of the war in the Middle East, which led the barrel of crude oil to rise around 50% in that period, to close this Tuesday around US$110.
In the case of the Allaria boroker, the recommendation is clear: buy View, action to which it assigns a potential increase of more than 30% compared to its current values.
From the City, other experts appeal for caution. Although the war conflict is reaching its hottest point since it began, uncertainty is What will happen to assets linked to the price of oilonce global tension drops.
That is, if values in the oil sector normalize, the prices of shares and indices (ETF) linked to hydrocarbons could fall in the short term.
“I love the company, I follow it. I am selling now due to the global situation, thinking about buying back at some point,” says José Bano, economist and market analyst.
Along the same lines, Andrés Repetto, analyst and founder of Andy Stop Loss, adds: “Now I would keep it, but I would not buy it. In the long term it is a ‘nonsense’: it has excellent numbers and Vaca Muerta will continue to grow. But we are talking about three years ahead; in the short term, no.”
