At the beginning of the week, a barrel of Brent oil was priced at $111 and the companies linked to Vaca Muerta were the undisputed stars of the Stock Market. But in just 24 hours, the ceasefire (for now momentary) caused a drop of more than 7% to Vista Energy and almost 3% to YPF in one wheel. Now, post-truce crude oil, at around $95, is still 40% more expensive than before the war began.
Specifically, the Brent fell after the truce around a 12%, up to US$95 per barrel for June contracts, while the WTI collapsed a 15.1%until the $95 for delivery in May. This occurred just 24 hours after that same Brent will touch US$111 at the European opening on April 7, when the market was already pricing in what seemed like an imminent massive attack.
Trump’s announcement was conditional on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic route through which transits 20% of the world’s maritime crude oil flow. The mere expectation that that silver would flow again was enough to sink prices.
Oil companies suffered on the stock market due to the drop in oil prices
The blow to the Buenos Aires stock market was felt immediately, with energy companies operating in negative territory on Wednesday, while the majority of papers were operating in the green: Vista Energy fell 7.1%Conveyor of Gas del Sur lost 3.4%YPF 2.6% and Pampa Energy 1.3%. Meanwhile on Wall Street, the closures were equally harsh: YPF fell 1.6% to US$43 and Vista Energy lost 6.5%.
This Thursday the trend deepened. The ADRs of energy companies led the falls, in a much more negative trend than the previous day.
Horacio Marin, CEO of YPF, had anticipated a few days before the ceasefire: “What the war in the Middle East has done is that investment is going to be brought forward and a lot of capital is needed there.“.
The logic is the following: Vaca Muerta has an extraction cost of between US$40 and US$45 per barrel according to sector data. With crude oil currently around $95, the margin remains more than comfortable. Oil still remains at values that exceed those prior to the start of the war by more than 25%. And there is another structural variable that should not be ignored: Argentine production reached a historical record of 874,000 barrels per day in February, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%, and Vaca Muerta today explains 68% of the total oil production and 56% of the country’s natural gas, with 4,470 active wells.
Furthermore, fiscal sensitivity is relevant: each additional dollar in the price of Brent generates approximately US$100 million annually in exports for Argentina, and with sustained prices close to US$95, Energy exports in 2026 could be between US$13,000 and US$14,000 million.
Country risk at minimum in 2026: bonds and banks gain from post-truce rotation
While the energy companies were sinking, On the other side of the stock market there was a kind of party. Argentine ADRs rose to a 7.9%, led by Grupo Superviellefollowed by Banco Macro with 7.5% and Grupo Financiero Galicia with 4.6%. The main protagonist of the day was, in any case, the sovereign debt.
The public securities operated in the US with increases of between 1.2% and 2.4%, which brought the country risk to 551 basis pointsalmost 50 units below the 610 registered at the close of the previous day. When the wheel closes, the index ended at 570 basis pointsleaving the intraday low of 551 as the most optimistic snapshot of the moment. The value is the lowest since the beginning of the conflict, you have to go back to February 26 to find a similar mark, just two days before the attack by the United States and Israel on the Iranian regime.
The scenario of consolidation of the truce could take the indicator back to the 500 basis point zone. But to look for levels of 400 or less, the market needs much stronger local signals.
Did Vaca Muerta lose its window or did the truce simply take it down a notch?
The logic of the truce is that Oil above $110 was unsustainable. It was the price of an active war with the Strait of Hormuz closed. Now, with the truce, crude oil fell to the US$95 area. But let’s remember, at the beginning of February, before the attack, Brent was around US$68. That is, even after the “defeat” that the market assigns to the Argentine energy companies, crude oil is still more than 40% more expensive than before the war.
Besides, Vaca Muerta does not depend on the Strait of Hormuz. This can help Argentina continue to position itself as a safe and reliable supplier at a time when international markets are trying to reduce dependence on the Middle East. And this, which the war accelerated, the search for alternative sources, does not seem to be reversed in two weeks of truce. Long-term contracts, infrastructure VMOS pipeline and YPF’s investment plan for US$130,000 million In Neuquén until 2031 they are not taken or canceled depending on the mood of a day.
It is also worth remembering that The truce has an expiration date and Vice President JD Vance himself described it as “fragile” from Budapest. Vance explained that Iran’s response had varied depending on the group within the government: the foreign minister had reacted favorably, but others had been “lying” about military achievements and the terms of the agreement. The system remains tied to a rather fragile peace and a Strait that in the last few hours closed againsince Iran asks that Lebanon be included in the agreements (something that was never agreed).
The truce, for now, seems to not deactivate the risk, it postpones it. If the ceasefire collapses before two weeks (something that does not seem unreasonable at all) crude oil could return to the US$105-110 in a matter of hours. In macro terms, it is very convenient for Argentina, but we have to see how the impact on the increase in gasoline can be withstood.
