“Those who say that the dollar is late do so out of ignorance or jealousy. Some others will do it because they put money into it to instigate the rise (of the exchange rate). “Competitiveness is gained by lowering taxes, lowering regulations and opening the economy.” Luis Caputo came out to the crossroads, in the last few hours, against those who believe that the wholesale dollar below $1,400 represents a problem for Argentina.
This Tuesday, the wholesaler strengthened the trend, with a new and slight decline in the exchange market. The parity is already 20% below the band ceiling.
For the Government, this dollar is perfectly competitiveand this is what Caputo himself puts it.
For a part of the City, the fact that the Central Bank buys dollars daily is the main reinsurance of this exchange rate. This is what has been happening uninterruptedly since last January 2nd. However, others speak plainly of exchange rate delay.
The dollar remains still and the City fears that there will be an exchange delay
The current price of the dollar leaves reminiscences of the recent past, which In Argentina it ended badly.
According to the latest data processed by economist Salvador Vitelli, the real exchange rate (ITCRM) shows a clear trend: Argentina is returning to values that, in recent history, marked the milestones of what is known as “exchange delay.”
Vitelli recalls that the current record – of a dollar of $1,400 and even a few pesos below – is the same real value that existed:
- At the end of 2015: just before the release of the Macri administration from the stocks, when the official dollar (adjusted to current prices) was around $1,400 – $1,500.
- During 2017: in the period of greatest appreciation of Mauricio Macri’s management, prior to the 2018 crisis, where the real value stabilized around $1,500
- When Javier Milei assumed the Presidencythe “official” dollar at today’s prices was in 1,236 pesos.
At today’s prices, The $800 of the dollar with which Milei started his economic plan is in $2,676.
Cheap or competitive dollar?: some economists support the Government
A group of analysts from the City agree with the Minister of Economy. They maintain that Argentina can work with this exchange rate. And that, in the facts, it has been demonstrated.
Santiago Solanet, economist and partner at the consulting firm BlackToro, is in favor of the official position.
“Are you sure the dollar is ‘cheap'”?challenges. “There is a strong structural change,” anticipates. And move on to the hard data on Argentine exports:
- Between 2016 – 2020, Argentina exported between US$54,000 million and US$65,000 million annually.
- Between 2021 – 2024, US$76,000 million to US$88,000 million were sold at the best international prices.
- 2025 Argentina exported US$87 billion, with increasing quantities.
“And moving forward?” asks Solanet. “Energy and mining will add approximately US$5 billion per year! (Less at first, and then more), reaching $45 billion in exports by these two sectors by 2030,” ventures the economist.
According to the calculations, in total, Argentina would export US$143,000 million in 2030according to BCRA. “And I don’t know if that number was halfway conservative,” Solanet assumes.
“I ask…isn’t a very strong structural change evident in the balance of trade and payments? If we also add the investments that are coming in, Shouldn’t it be logical that structurally the exchange rate stabilizes at lower real levels compared to previous periods where we had a much lower trade balance, even negative in some years? And a completely different and smaller productive and commercial matrix?”
Solanet concludes: “To say that the dollar is cheap just by looking at a chart and ignoring this structural dynamic…is lazy or basic”, risk.
The four keys that play in favor of Luis Caputo
There are real, “sacred” facts on which this exchange reality is based, beyond personal tastes. And it has to do with a favorable context for the current dynamics of the dollar.
There are four, at least.
The field
Nobody says that Caputo will be able to manage the exchange rate during the coming months. The perspective of a dollar administered at will by the Government lasts at least until mid-year.
The second semester may be different. For a purely seasonal issue. But even then there are no moves against the Central Bank.
In the City there is unanimity: the Government is on the eve of having a significant supply of foreign currency thanks to the super harvest. The Grain Exchange estimated this offer at over US$30,000 million, and in any case there is expectation about the rate of liquidation of the farmers.
“The 2025/26 campaign will be 16% higher than the previous year, although there will be heterogeneity between crops; wheat, already harvested, grew more than 45% in volume, while corn will grow 25%, although the soybean harvest is expected to be somewhat lower than in the previous campaign (-3%)”, indicated a report from the consulting firm Ferreres & Asociados.
Sector sources consulted by iProfessional agree that Producers will wait until the last minute to see if Caputo gives them an incentive on the withholding sidejust as happened in September of last year.
The Minister of Economy has already warned that this time there will be no sweetener, basically because fiscal accounts are very tight in the midst of the real fall in tax collection.
tourism
An account that closed 2025 very deficient, but that was moderated at the beginning of 2026. In fact, during February almost 195,000 fewer Argentines traveled abroad than during February of last year.
The other way around, The number of foreigners who landed in Argentina showed an expansion of 8.0 percent.
The balance is still in deficit, but now more calm: the total deficit between foreign visitors entering the country and those leaving reached 1,320,000 people.
The war
For now, The effect of the war in the Middle East plays in favor of the local economy. On the side of the raw materials that Argentina exports.
In addition to the additional income from the countryside, the other main protagonist of exports will be the sale of energy.
“We can estimate that, if crude oil remains between US$90 and US$100, Crude oil exports will total about US$2,000/3,000 M vs. the year 2025″, noted the Ferreres report.
Limited imports
An economy that struggles to grow will also have limited purchases abroad.
“Throughout 2025, purchases from abroad reached a new maximum, so we should not see a very significant jump if there are no changes in trade policy. In value, by 2026 we expect a growth in imports of about US$2,000 M under the assumptions of our base scenario, so “The balance of goods should be a surplus of approximately US$12,000 million, a little higher than in 2025,” summarized Ferreres.
