On Monday morning, as European markets were just waking up from the Easter holiday, Bitcoin was already on the move. The price It went from US$67,000 on Friday at the close to exceeding US$69,500 in a few hourswith peaks that touched US$70,000 according to different data platforms.
The trigger was an Axios report that reported active negotiations between the United States, Iran and regional mediators for a possible 45-day ceasefire which would include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
In that context, as happens every time there is a sudden movement in the price, social networks were filled with posts that promise to reveal “what is really happening.” Two of them circulated strongly among Spanish-speaking crypto investors and it is worth reading them carefully, because they mix real information with claims that have no verifiable support.
The first tweet: exchanges buying BTC “non-stop”
The post claims that Binance, Coinbase and Bybit “have just started accumulate cryptocurrencies before the US market opens” and that “they are buying millions of BTC non-stop every few minutes.” He adds, with exclamation points, that “the deal with Iran closes tomorrow.”
What is real and verifiable is that Bitcoin rose. The main reason is the report of negotiations for a ceasefire in the United States-Iran conflict. There was a strong liquidation of short positions: According to data from CoinGlass, in the last 24 hours about US$273 millionof which 72% were bearish bets.
That explains an important part of the bullish momentum. It was not only genuine buying, but also shorts that were forced to close their positions.
The theory of exchanges buying that suggested a rise in Bitcoin
What is not verifiable is the claim that exchanges are buying. The post (and others in a similar sense) does not have any source cited, nor data on-chain that support it. Exchanges are intermediaries, They don’t have a mandate to accumulate Bitcoin that way.
On the other hand, stating that “the agreement will be closed tomorrow” is premature. Prediction markets like Polymarket yesterday assigned just a 4% chance of a ceasefire by April 7.
Real background data: Binance currently accumulates $47.5 billion in stablecoin reserves (31% more than a year ago), which indicates capital waiting to be deployed, but not a compulsive purchase of assets.
The second tweet: ETFs selling while ARKB buys alone
The second post says that “last week, the Capital outflows from ETFs plummeted to US$16.6 million in the group of BlackRock, Fidelity, Bitwise and Grayscale”, that “ARKB alone bought US$34.1 million” and concludes that “the selling pressure disappeared.”
This post mixes real data with a hasty interpretation. Farside Investors data shows that the On March 26, net outflows of US$171 million were recorded in a single day. On March 30 there was a partial recovery with net inflows of US$69.4 millionwhere ARKB contributed US$33 million and Fidelity (FBTC) US$28.9 million.
In conclusion, ARKB’s US$34.1 million for a specific day are consistent with the data, but to say that the selling pressure disappeared it is premature. March 2026 closed with US$2.5 billion in net inflows, which is positivebut Bitcoin has been trading in the u range for five weeks$s65,000 au$s73,000 without being able to get out of it. He Fear and greed index marked a level of 14 out of 100 on Monday: “extreme fear”.
The Cut Theory of ETF Sales
The real context of the market today
Bitcoin is trading at around $69,000, with a trading volume of US$17.1 billion diaries. Ethereum up 5% to $2,100XRP advanced 2.2% and Solana 2%. The total capitalization of the crypto market exceeded $2.5 trillion.
The catalyst is real but fragile. Reuters reported that Pakistan acted as mediator in a two-stage plan, but Iran rejected in the afternoon the ceasefire proposal that included the reopening of the strait. Trump extended his ultimatum until Tuesday night.
“The movement is technically a ‘short squeeze’ on a background of geopolitical news“explains Belén González, digital asset analyst. “The market was very positioned for the downside and one headline was enough to trigger liquidations. That It is not the same as a trend change“warns the expert.
The current mini rally could be the start of something more or simply another bounce within the range Bitcoin is stuck in since the conflict began. The difference depends on whether the ceasefire comes to fruition.
“Which What changed is the very short-term sentiment, not the fundamentals“says Laura Ventura, portfolio manager and financial analyst. According to the expert, “this week is going to be key to see if there are real institutional purchases behind the movement or if it is just covering short positions.
Among the data to follow we must highlight Farside Investors flows, stablecoin reserves on CryptoQuant and open interest in derivatives. He support to support is US$69,000.
Anxious posts on X don’t always lead us to smart investment decisions. Much less when there seems to be a race to “throw the baton”, even when an error that causes many people to lose money does not translate into a loss of credibility. Better to invest well, solidly, informed. For the millionaire stroke of luck there is the lottery.
