The trigger was geopolitical and came from Tehran. Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi announced that the Strait of Hormuz (through which 20% of the world’s oil transits) remains completely open to commercial traffic during the remaining period of the ceasefire. Donald Trump confirmed it minutes later on Truth Social.
The barrel of Brent fell below US$90, a price that has not been seen since the first days of March 2026while the fall in the price of oil positively impacts the price of Bitcoin due to its direct effect on global inflation expectations. As energy and transportation costs fall, pressure on consumer price indices eases, allowing central banks to adopt less restrictive monetary policies.
Bitcoin jumped to a maximum of two months close to US$78,000driven by the risk appetite that generated the signal of progress towards the end of the war. The rise accumulates close to a 9.5% in five days and more than 8% in the last two weeks. The volume accompanied, it was not a spike of liquidations but sustained purchasing in the spot market.
Three requirements for Bitcoin to rise
The jump does not guarantee continuation. Analysts are precise about what has to happen for the rise to consolidate.
Analyst Pedro Martínez sums it up at one level: “$76,000 is the point that decides everything. We need a candle close on a high time frame above that area to trust the movement.” If this closure is confirmed, the path to the US$84,000-US$96,000 would be technically enabledan area where investors accumulated more than 2 million BTC in the last six months according to Glassnode heatmap.
The Material Indicators resource adds two additional requirements:
- Retrieve the annual opening price in US$87,500
- Reconquer the 50-week moving average in US$97,000
As long as these levels are not reconquered, we cannot speak of a confirmed bull market. For Martínez, “the immediate threshold is lower, but equally concrete. A weekly closing above the US$72,800 to confirm a breakup.”
The third component is the flow of ETFs. Bitcoin spot ETFs maintained steady capital inflows throughout March and April, preventing declines below $68,000. On Tuesday they registered US$451 million in net inflowsbut demand remains intermittent. Without persistent positive flows, the price does not have the institutional fuel it needs to sustain high levels.
Bearish bounce or bullish trend
Crypto analyst Iván Bolé (whose weekly analysis closely follows BTC movements) is more cautious and puts the scenario in perspective: “The trend is still bearish, it has not changed yet.”
The distinction that Bolé makes is key for those who are thinking about entering: a bearish rebound is not a new bull market. In his reading, this rebound “can lead us in a minimal version to US$82,000-US$85,000in a somewhat more optimistic version US$90,000 and even US$100,000“. And he adds: “I am in favor of the fact that this year it could perfectly give us that value of US$100,000“.
But the scenario after that rebound is what differentiates its reading from the generalized optimism: “What is technically established for now is that there would be a new bearish leg. The subsequent fall could return to the lowest point we had recently, that US$60,000, or even pierce and reach US$49,000-US$52,000“.
In other words, if the rebound reaches $100,000 without signs of a change in structure appearing, what comes next would be a final correction towards cycle lows.
The key indicator
The indicator Supertrend (available on TradingView) chained five consecutive days showing bullish trend for the price of Bitcoin, accompanying the rise from US$70,700 on April 13 to exceeding US$78,000 on Friday. In the past, this same indicator anticipated several of the rises that took Bitcoin to its all-time highs, although like any technical tool, it can generate false signals.
The problem is that the geopolitical window that enabled all this has an expiration date: the ceasefire between the United States and Iran. expires April 22. If the deal is not extended or collapses, tensions can quickly return and the price can correct as quickly as it rose.
Axios reported that Washington is negotiating a broader deal (including the release of up to $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in exchange for the stock of enriched uranium) but Trump was clear and stressed that the naval blockade remains “in full force and effect” until the transaction is “100% complete.”
The levels that anticipate prices
Bitcoin Bullish Score Index (which combines fundamental and technical metrics) rose to 40 on April 15, the highest level since October 2025. It sounds good until you put it in context and it’s still in neutral territory. “To speak of strong bullish conditions it needs to exceed 60,” according to analyst Pedro Martínez.
April was historically a positive month for Bitcoin, with a 69% closings up since 2013and the second quarter of 2026 already accumulates a gain of 8.64%. Short-term technical signals favor continuation. But Bolé says it bluntly: “There are three possibilities. That there is a bearish rebound that takes the asset between US$85,000 and US$100,000, that the correction is longer, or that upon reaching the bearish rebound point the euphoria is such that what determines us is a change in structure and the early end of the bearish structure.”
Everything that happens between now and the close of the weekly candle on Sunday will define the scenario for the coming weeks. If Bitcoin sustains the level of US$76,000-US$77,000 with volume and the weekly RSI closes above 41, the most optimistic analysts speak of a path towards US$82,000-US$100,000 throughout the year. If that close fails, the bearish diagonal that started on October 6 takes control again.
What can be said with data in hand is that whoever bought in the support of US$62,000-US$65,000 At the worst moment of the quarter it already has between 15% and 25% profit. Whoever enters now, $77,000-$78,000, is betting that the bearish rebound has more fuel.
The risk did not disappear (the April 22 and the Fed meeting on April 29 are double-edged catalysts), but the market is no longer ignoring bullish signals. And that, in itself, is a change from recent weeks.
