The dollar reaffirms its bearish dynamics and Monday’s financial day advances with a drop of almost 0.75%. To find a similar nominal value you have to go back almost six months. Despite the acceleration of inflation in recent months, the currency remains stable, with a slight downward trend.
Gustavo Quintana, operator of PR Corredores de Cambio, believes that Javier Milei’s administration seeks for “the exchange rate to function as an anti-inflationary anchor” and that “everything indicates that, for the moment, it feels comfortable with a dollar at these levels.”
Thick harvest, accumulation of reserves and abundance of dollars in the market
The drop in the price responds to a combination of factors that enhance the supply of foreign currency and favor the accumulation of reserves. According to the Rosario Stock Exchange, in the first three months of the year some US$5,735 million. Although the figure is below the US$6.2 billion from the same period last yearmaintains a high level. Along these lines, the organization foresees a total income of US$35,375 million for the remainder of 2026.
According to Quintana, income from sectors such as mining and energy is added to these flows, along with the placement of Negotiable Obligations and the export of services. “Demand is not enough to balance the forces in the market and, consequently, prices fall,” he explained.
Along the same lines, the economist and teacher Federico Glustein pointed out that “there is a glut because in January the Government managed to cover its obligations with external financing, which facilitated the dynamics of the exchange market. Added to this is “the drop in activity, the lower demand for imports, the sustained income of foreign currency from agricultural exports and mostly successful tenders.”
One of the pillars of economic policy is accumulation of reserves by the Central Bank. The consulting firm LCG detailed that, in the week of April 6 to 10, the BCRA bought about US$986 millionwhich took the total of international reserves au$45,431 million.
However, from Invecq they warn that the 67% of what was purchased so far this year was used to pay debt maturities. According to the consulting firm, gross reserves grew US$2,326 million between January 2 and April 10while net reserves fell US$865 million. This is explained by the Treasury’s lack of access to international credit, which forces it to meet commitments with its own currencies.
The dollar in real terms does not stop falling
Despite the acceleration in prices in recent months, the exchange rate remains stable. Fabio Rodríguez, managing partner of M&R Asociados, maintains that the Government seeks to keep the currency in the $1,400 as an “exchange anchor”.
“This has generated a delay in the real exchange ratesince the nominal practically did not move after the elections, while inflation was around 3% monthly. The price is at one of the lowest levels of the Milei era, which generates concern in terms of employment and production,” he explained.
In the market there is consensus that the real exchange rate presents a delay of between 15% and 20%. In the first three months of 2026, accumulated inflation was 8.7% (assuming that March repeats February’s 2.9%). In that period, the wholesale dollar went from $1,475 to $1,370.
If the year-on-year comparison is taken, at the end of April 2025 the wholesaler was trading at $1,170. From then until March, the CPI accumulated nearly 28.1%which also suggests a lag of the exchange rate compared to inflation.
“Many forgot the exchange bands, but one upper band above $1,600 would imply a dollar between 15% and 20% higher,” Glustein said.
The risks for the Government and the maturities facing the Treasury
In the short term, the exchange rate scheme does not show significant tensions. Quintana maintains that the Government will continue to be supported by “the liquidation of the coarse harvest, remnants of the fine harvest and income linked to the RIGI.”
However, Rodríguez warns that “there is no need to declare victory,” since important debt payments are concentrated in July and August. Furthermore, starting next year, maturities will exceed US$20 billion in 2027 without full access to international markets.
In this context, the demand for foreign currency from tourism, hoarding and imports could gain weight once reduce seasonal supply.
The Treasury will have to face in July maturities of Bonares and Globales bonds for US$4,288 million between capital and interest. Of the total, US$2,372 million correspond to Globales and US$1,916 million to Bonaresaccording to GMA Capital.
A report by the consulting firm Epyca indicates that the current rate of reserve accumulation would allow the goal with the IMF to be met early, which could improve the credit rating and facilitate an eventual return to the voluntary debt markets. However, the agency is still delaying approval of the second review of the program, which would enable a additional disbursement of US$1,000 million.
The consensus among analysts is that the current exchange rate calm could be temporary. As long as the strong supply of foreign currency persists, the scheme is sustained, but the dynamics could change when that window is reduced. In this scenario, the accumulated exchange rate delay appears as one of the main variables to monitor, since it could affect competitiveness and export performance. The sustainability of the scheme will depend, ultimately, on the Government’s capacity to manage this tension in a context of longer debt maturities.
