Stock Bank (VALO) got into the Argentine assets of best performance in march and it did not do so because of a marginal increase or because of an isolated movement. According to the information released by Cocos Capital, the paper advanced 30.71% in the monthso an investment of $100,000 held on March 1 would have been transformed into $130,710 at the end of that journey.
And, in a market where high-impact names such as Satellogic, YPF and View, VALO’s performance began to attract attention since it was not an energy company, nor a purely speculative story, nor a bet tied to a specific event, but rather a financial entity with a very particular business model and with numbers that, in the opinion of the City, could still justify more travel.
This interest was reinforced with the beginning of coverage of Allaria, which came out with a recommendation of buy, a $1,200 price target by the end of 2026, a dividend yield of 1.4% and a expected return total of 72% from the last price considered, which was $703.5.
Why Banco de Valores began to take off
One of the keys to understanding why Banco de Valores managed to stand out even within the financial universe is that Its structure is not very similar to that of traditional leading banks. Allaria emphasizes that it is a private bank founded in 1978, oriented to the corporate segment, without physical branches and with a very strong historical positioning in areas linked to the capital market. He has been leading the financial trust business for 20 years in his role as fiduciary and, in addition, is the main custodian agent for common funds, with more than 50% of the market share in that segment.
Added to that is a important role in share placements and debt issuessomething that differentiates it from banks whose income generation depends much more on traditional retail credit.
During 2025, a good part of private banks were hit by the increase in the cost of risk associated with the retail portfolio. Banco de Valores, on the other hand, maintained a 100% corporate loan portfolio, which allowed him to go through that context with a much more favorable dynamic. In the report, Allaria notes that the bank closed with a NPL of 0.8% and a cost of risk of 0.6%, figures significantly lower than those of the leading entities listed on the Stock Market.
In other words, while the market punished many banks for concerns about the blackberry and the deterioration of the most massive business, VALO managed to stand in a more defensive place due to the composition of its portfolio.
The report also focuses on the quality of profitability given that in 2025, Banco de Valores reported a ROE of 21.8%well above the average of 4.4% which Allaria calculates for private sector banks in that period. The comparison shows that the entity not only avoided part of the problems that hit the rest, but also managed to generate a level of return on equity that clearly left it above their peers.
The data is even more forceful when the end of the year is observed and is that, in the fourth quarter of 2025, the bank earned $16,373 million, facing $7,582 million of the previous quarter, with a ROE of 22.2% versus 11.1% previously.
Allaria projects that this relative advantage would not be a temporary phenomenon so that for 2026 estimates an ROE of 20.1% and for 2027 one of 20%, again above what was expected for a good part of the banks under coverage. The broker’s explanation is that the less exposure to retail business and the corporate composition of the wallet would allow us to sustain higher levels of profitability in a context where other players would still be experiencing margin compression and blackberry hangover.
Solid results and credit growth
Allaria’s purchase recommendation is not only based on comparative ratios, it is also built on a broader transformation process that modified the size and structure of Banco de Valores. The report recalls that, after the merger with Columbus, The entity incorporated human capital, client portfolio and new business lines, adding segments such as corporate loans, investment banking and sales & trading.
This movement allowed it to put together a more diversified model with a better capacity to adapt to different stages of the economic cycle.
In phases of greater activity, the bank can capture more commissions for trusts, custody, investment banking and capital markets; In more complex times, it has tools to sustain income from credit activity and financial business linked to companies.
Added to this reorganization was the follow-on carried out in December, when Banco de Valores issued 150 million sharesraised his capital of 999.7 million to 1,149.7 million and obtained funds for $70.5 billion. In the report, Allaria notes that this placement was an important point because it reinforced equity and generated cash to accelerate business growth. That money began to be seen in subsequent issues. During the fourth quarter, the loans in pesos grew 23% compared to to the previous quarter and 140% year-on-year, until $561,846 million. Loans in dollars, for their part, advanced 27% quarterly and 258% year-on-year measured in currency of origin, up to US$119 million.
Together, the credits came to represent 36% of the asset, when a quarter before they were 23%.
This jump in the weight of the credit portfolio is one of the aspects that Allaria highlights the most because it changes the bank’s logic compared to its own recent history. Until not so long ago, VALO was seen primarily as an entity closely linked to custody, trusts and market businesses. Now it appears as a company that, without abandoning those strengths, It also managed to significantly expand its corporate lending business.. The report highlights that a 45% of the portfolio corresponds to the financial sector, largely due to card coupon discounts, while the rest is distributed among documents, advances and other loans, including financing for exporters and participation in syndicated loans.
In turn, Banco de Valores has 62% of deposits in dollarsmuch more than the average of the leading banks, and also has a program for issuing negotiable obligations approved by up to US$150 million, of which already had issued US$45 million at the time of the report. For the broker, this structure can give more stability to the funding and accompany the growth of leverage in an orderly manner.
Another feature that strengthens the stock market history is the liquidity herethe stock has 100% free float, no shareholder exceeds 12% of the capital, integrates the S&P Merval and has been operating an average daily volume close to US$1.3 million at BYMA.
What the stock exchange company recommends doing
After a advance of more than 30% in March, The logical question is whether the role was not too stretched in the short term. Allaria’s conclusion goes in the opposite direction and maintains that, even after the increase, the stock continues to have merit because the valuation is still finds support in a combination of higher ROE, lower defaults, business growth corporate and a less exposed structure to the problem that affected other banks during 2025.
He target price of $1,200 by the end of 2026 arises from working with multiples of 1.65 times book value 2027 and 9.1 times earnings per share 2027. Allaria admits that I VALO historically quoted with a premium compared to the leading banks, although it states that this premium is justified by an expectation of superior profitability. Currently, the paper opera to 1.49 times book value 2026 dear already 0.97 times book value 2027, while the large banks are trading, according to the same comparative table in the report, at lower levels.
The broker’s bet is that this difference is not only reasonable but also can still be sustained.
The fine point, in any case, is not so much to ask whether VALO is cheaper or more expensive in absolute terms, but to understand what is the market paying today. In this case, what seems to be at stake is the premium for an entity that, at a delicate moment for much of the Argentine financial system, showed a healthier portfolio quality, clearly superior profitability and a business platform that combines custody, trusts, capital markets and corporate credit.
Furthermore, Allaria’s own comparison with the Brazilian bank ABC Brazilanother entity focused on corporate lending and investment banking, suggests that the market assigns VALO a much higher valuation because you are looking at a story of much more accelerated growth. While ABC appears as a more mature bank, Banco de Valores still exhibits significant expansion dynamics, both in portfolio and business.
Therefore, the strongest data of the moment may not only be that Banco de Valores has been one of the March star investmentsbut that performance was accompanied by a report that did not recommend automatically taking profits nor did it suggest waiting for a correction.
The recommendation remains “buy” even after the rise, relying on resultss that show improvement, in a robust business model and in a structure that, at least for now, seems to continue offering arguments so that the story does not end in the rally of the last month.
