The new movement of one of the most followed brokers in the City left a new signal for those who operate CEDEARs and they look for an international portfolio with well-diversified sector risk. In his report of April 16, Allaria updated its selection of papers from abroad, confirmed two entries and two exits, and left a positioning photo that combines technology, discretionary consumption, finance, health, telecommunications and energy.
The brokerage company noted that Nu Holdings enter (NU) and T-Mobile (TMUS), while they come out Okay (OK) and target (TGT). At the same time, the list of recommendations was made up of Nvidia (NVDA), Globant (GLOB), Oracle (ORCL), Nu Holdings, Tesla (TSLA), Free market (MELI), trip.com (TCOM), Petrobras (PBR), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) and T-Mobile.
The most important thing, however, appears in the segmentation by sector, which allows us to understand where the portfolio’s bias is oriented. According to this scheme, the recommendations are distributed with
- 30% in technology
- 30% on discretionary consumption
- 10% in financial
- 10% in health care
- 10% on communication services
- 10% in energy
What changed in the CEDEARs portfolio
Allaria decided incorporate Nu Holdings and T-Mobile and, at the same time, remove Vale and Target from your suggested portfolio. This modification not only alters two names on the list, but also the general thematic presentation.
With the entry of Nu, the broker adds a specific commitment to the financial segment, but not from a traditional US bank but from a regional fintech with strong exposure to Latin America. As in the segmentation table the Financials category represents 10% and Nu is the only role of that sector within the selection, it can be stated that CEDEAR concentrates all of that 10%.
With T-Mobile something similar happens, the sector Communication Services figure with a participation of 10% and the only name associated with that block is precisely that company. Consequently, the entire sectoral weight can be attributed to that position.
Something similar happens with Petrobras, who appears as the only representative of the block of energy, and with Intuitive Surgical, which remains the only action of the health care group. Each one, due to the sectoral construction of the report, is associated with a 10% of the total recommended.
Where precision is lost is in the two heaviest blocks of the portfolio since Allaria assigns 30% to technology and 30% for discretionary consumption, but within those sectors there are several names and the report It does not disaggregate the individual percentage of each one. In technology, Nvidia, Globant and Oracle appear, while in discretionary consumption there are Tesla, Mercado Libre and Trip.com.
The data available, then, is the weight of the sector, not the exact proportion of each CEDEAR within that sector.
What a $1 million portfolio would look like
If an Argentine investor wanted to translate the general logic of the report into pesos, the most rigorous way to do so is by replicating the sector allocation and not a supposed distribution by asset that the report does not explain.
Under this methodology, a $1 million portfolio would be distributed like this:
- Technology: $300,000, distributed in Nvidia, Globant and Oracle
- Discretionary consumption: $300,000, composed of Tesla, Mercado Libre and trip.com
- Nu Holdings: $100,000
- Intuitive Surgical: $100,000
- T-Mobile: $100,000
- Petrobras: $100,000
The strong bet continues to be on technology and consumption
The sectoral composition of the report shows quite clearly where the main bias is. Between technology and discretionary consumption is concentrated 60% of the entire recommended portfolio and that implies that six out of every ten pesos of a sector replica They would be exposed to companies linked to growth, innovation, digitalization and international consumption.
The selection in the technological block mixes different profiles since Nvidia is associated with the universe of semiconductors and artificial intelligence; Globant, to technological services and software; Oracle, to corporate infrastructure and data solutions. What the report allows us to affirm with certainty is that Allaria wants to have a relevant portion of its portfolio in this area, but it does not report whether within that 30% it favors one over the other.
The same criterion applies to the discretionary consumer segment given that Tesla, Mercado Libre and Trip.com appear there, three companies that also respond to growth stories, but from different verticals. tesla play on mobility and energy transition; Free market, about e-commerce and fintech in Latin America; Trip.com, about tourism and recovery of travel spending.
This overweighting in the two most aggressive sectors of the portfolio also coexists with a backdrop that the report itself shows on the home page, where the weekly return by S&P sectors places technology and consumer discretionary among the best performing groups.
The entry of Nu and T-Mobile
The entry of Nu and T-Mobile provides two things at the same time, on the one hand, it adds diversification compared to the dominant weight of technology and consumption and, on the other, it introduces exhibitions that can work with another logic.
Nu incorporates a financial leg in a portfolio that, according to segmentation, was not distributed among several names in the sector but focused on just one. For a local investor, this data can be read as a search for international financial exposure without resorting to traditional American banks. The verifiable point, anyway, is that the broker decided to give it 10% sectorial and that that block is channeled into Nu.
T-Mobile, meanwhile, add a telecommunications company to a selection that until then was more focused on growth and consumer businesses. Here too the report is precise in one aspect and silent in another. It is accurate in showing that Communication Services weighs 10% and that T-Mobile is the chosen paper.
What does this portfolio leave out?
Every selection says as much for what it includes as for what it leaves out, Allaria’s change represents the output of Vale and Targettwo names that until the previous edition were part of the suggested portfolio.
The report records the replacement, but does not develop an extended justification on the specific reasons for each departure.
The extra data that the City sees
The same report also adds a weekly monitor with the CEDEARs with the highest amount operated and number of operations, where names such as Vista, Microsoft, Mercado Libre, Nu, Micron, SPY, Petrobras, Meta, Nvidia, Tesla, GLD, Palantir, IBIT, Nasdaq and amazon, inter alia. This table is not part of the recommended portfolio in the strict sense, but it does serve to measure which papers currently concentrate the most interest and circulation in the local market.
For the Argentine investor this has practical value since looking at a recommendation on assets with a fluid wheel is not the same as looking at a recommendation on instruments with less volume. In that list, for example, several of the names that make up the suggested portfolio appear, such as MELI, NU, PBR, NVDA and TSLA, which at least shows that a relevant part of the broker’s bets coincides with CEDEARs that they already have one strong presence at BYMA.
