Bitcoin moves at a key technical and macroeconomic point. It had passed US$78,000 in the week, an increase of 6% in seven days, thanks to the announcement of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
But Iran once again closed the passage through which 20% of international crude oil circulates. and the leading digital currency fell a few steps to US$75,000. However, own factors mark your near future.
Bitcoin: the market view
The market is beginning to validate a bullish breakout scenario. But this reading coexists with a less comfortable fact: each attempt to overcome the US$76,000 area find offer.
This range coincides with the realized price of short-term holdersthat is, the level at which a good part of those who entered in recent months recover their investment. In terms of microstructure, it is a zone of break-even massive. Historically, these levels They work as a ceiling because they activate sales: investors who were at a loss take advantage of the recovery to exit.
The data on-chain confirm that dynamic. According to CryptoQuant, the Flows to exchanges accelerated strongly when the price approached US$76,000, with hourly income that reached around 11,000 BTCthe highest pace since December. It is a classic pattern: increasing deposits on exchanges in resistance zones usually anticipates selling pressure. Even so, profit taking has not yet reached extreme levels.
The daily realized profits are around US$500 millionfar from the threshold of US$1,000 million which in previous cycles marked short-term ceilings. The market began to distribute, but has not yet capitulated.
On the other side of the scale, an increasingly structural support appears: the institutional demand. Spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States continue to register positive flows, more than US$330 million in the last week according to SosoValue data and chain three consecutive weeks of entries.
This flow is not marginal, since today these vehicles They concentrate more than 6% of the supply Bitcoin totalwhich gives them a determining role in price formation.
On that front, furthermore, the competition intensifies. The launch of Morgan Stanley MSBT ETFwith a 0.14% commissionbelow BlackRock’s equivalent product, not only adds volume but also lowers the cost of access, expanding the potential investor base. In parallel, the corporate purchases remain firmconsolidating a demand layer less sensitive to tactical trading.
The macro context also plays in its favor. The uncertainty in the Middle Eastwith signs of negotiation between the United States and Iran, activated a regime change in risk appetite.
In that framework, the S&P 500 set new all-time highswhile the dollar weakened and Treasury yields fell. It is the ideal combo for assets like Bitcoin: lower real rate and lower dollar pressure.
The market looks for a floor while a rebound is in play
Market analyst Iván Bolé focuses on the structure of the market and relativizes price behavior in the short term in dialogue with iProUP.
“It is estimated that between 4% and 5% of the supply of Bitcoin is listed on exchangeswhile 100% of Apple’s shares are listed on the stock market. That small portion is what has us all speculating,” he says, underlining the sensitivity of the price to marginal supply movements.
In this framework, he states that the asset goes through “a lateral development typical of a break, a temporary consolidation in the middle of a trend“, although he warns that the underlying bias remains negative.
“The trend is clear and decidedly bearish for months“, he assures, and states that it is a typical process: slow, prolonged and, in many cases, exhausting for investors. “We never complained about the rise since US$15,500 US$126,300which was a hypersonic missile trip, but the falls are usually more tedious,” he adds.
From a more structural reading, Bolé points out that the market could be going through the final stretch of the first of three bearish phases. “With high probability we are at the end of the first stage or close to its conclusion,” he says, and suggests that the current movement could correspond to “a bear market rebound or even a previous fake“.
In the short term, identify more constructive tactical signals. “In the last two days a swing bullish“, he says, adding that “the bulls are trying to push the price towards zone of US$79,250–US$80,600which would be the next objective if the buying force is sustained.”
Still, he insists on putting the movement in perspective. If this week’s rise “is a rebound within a bear market, it will not occur in a single section: it will be slow, erratic and potentially unpredictable,” he points out. In that scenario, project three possible levels:
- Prices can move in a range between US$90,000 and US$100,000although it would not be immediate
- In a more conservative view, the asset may barely reach the zone of US$85,000-US$87,000 and then resume the downward trend
- If an additional drop is missing, the floor would be toward US$60,000 or even US$49,000-US$52,000
The key point, according to the analyst, is that the market is entering a definition phase. “What we have ahead of us is to respond if we are facing the expected rebound or if an additional drop is still missing“he slides.
The analyst adds a specific technical signal to monitor in the very short term: “If Bitcoin achieves close the weekly candle above the bearish diagonal that joins the decreasing highs from the ATH of $126,000, then we may be facing a full-fledged bearish rebound.”
The real resistance is higher than everyone thinks
Greyhound Trading market analyst Paula Chaves relativizes the idea of a strong resistance in the US$76,800 area and puts the focus further up the curve.
“Bitcoin did not find a structural wall at $76,800. It was a relevant level from on-chain, because it coincided with the average price of short-term holders, but the market managed to absorb that offer and surpass it solidly“, says.
In that sense, he states that this range “did not function as a dominant resistance, but as a transition zone within the movement“.
For Chaves, the true test is on another level. “The wall today is higher, around the US$79,300“, he assures, and explains that it is a heavier resistance, linked to weekly timing. “That is where historically the most relevant decisions are concentrated and where it is most likely to see real selling pressure.”
In terms of structure, the reading is more nuanced. The analyst recognizes that the asset is beginning to show constructive signs in the short term, but warns that the general picture is not yet resolved. “Bitcoin already has a bullish bias in daily timingwhich supports recent momentum,” he says.
However, he clarifies that “both the Weekly and monthly structure continue to be bearish“, which forces us to be cautious in high areas. This divergence of temporalities, as proposed, explains why the market shows strength without having yet confirmed a clean scenario of continuity.
Two opposing scenarios for the next rounds
Looking ahead to the next rounds, Chaves organizes the scenario into two well-defined forces.
On the side bullishthe key is to maintain levels. “Continuity depends on the price remains above US$76,800 and attack the US$79,300 zone again with volume,” he maintains.
If the market manages to consolidate above that range, it indicates that “space opens up towards US$80,000-US$85,000“, in a context that may also be favored by the macro environment and the persistence of institutional flows.
On the bearish side, the risk is clear and localized. “A rejection in the zone of US$79,000-US$79,300 “can activate profit taking,” he warns, especially considering that many participants are positioned from lower levels. In that case, he does not rule out a technical adjustment.
“It wouldn’t be strange to see a ordered correction towards the US$70,000 area“, he points out, although he clarifies that this movement would not necessarily imply a change in trend in the short term.
