The private sector bank deposits in dollars They remain in the record zone, close to the US$39,000 million. The figure implies historical highs and represents almost triple what it had been prior to the assumption of Javier Mileibut in recent months some stagnation has been observed. The stability occurs despite the Tax Innocence Law, which was regulated in February. Although it is not money laundering, analysts affirm that the incentive to “take the dollars out of the mattress” should have given more dynamism to deposits in foreign currency.
“The Central Bank seems to be focused on sustaining gross international reserves, in a context in which private deposits in foreign currency have remained stagnant since January, with expectations that the Fiscal Innocence Law will allow greater expansion,” says the Max Capital research team.
Javier Okseniuk, director of LCG, highlights that the Tax Innocence Law “did not catch on”, taking into account the stagnation of deposits in the last month: in March, the private sector’s private holdings in dollars in banks It grew barely US$65 million to total US$38,387 million. He estimates that it is due to taxpayers’ caution because the Financial Information Unit (UIF) “continues to receive information that can activate reports.”
Furthermore, according to Okseniuk, there was recent laundering for larger amounts (between 2024 and 2025, with high levels of adhesion). In that sense, it is asked why taxpayers would declare large amounts now and did not do so before, during the last call for the asset regularization regime. As for the “chiquitaje”, he estimates that it is most likely that no deposit is needed and they will directly use the foreign currency when people need it.
Little confidence and fear of taxpayers
Tax lawyer Diego Fraga, on the other hand, considers that the relationship is not so linear. He affirms that the initiative is positive, but there is a lack of full confidence on the part of taxpayers for the new regime to boost dollar deposits: Many people maintain the fear that the banks, ARCA, UIF or provincial treasuries will later appear to ask for explanations about the amounts.. He estimates that many people prefer to wait.
“The small increase in deposits does not in itself prove that the measure has completely failed. There may be people to whom the idea seemed good or useful, but still do not dare to bank dollars due to mistrust. There are several elements that are not regulated or interpreted. They recently announced that an opinion is going to be issued by the National Tax Directorate to provide a bit of certainty on several doubtful issues,” says Fraga.
Weak points of the Tax Innocence Law
José Luis Ceteri, a specialist in tax affairs, states that the Tax Innocence Law contains several “weak points” that discourage adhesion. One of the most serious problems, he points out, is that this law does not eliminate the obligation of obligated subjects (notaries, accountants, banks and even ARCA itself) to report money movements when they exceed certain thresholds, as provided in Law 25,246, corresponding to the prevention of money laundering.
“For example, if a taxpayer goes to a bank today to deposit more than 40 Minimum Living and Mobile Wagesthe entity cannot receive them directly. You have to ask him for explanations about where that money comes from and how he obtained it, no matter what the Tax Innocence Law says. This point is the biggest obstacle and applies to all obligated subjects, such as a notary, who has to know the origin of the funds in certain operations,” he highlights.
Ceteri affirms that another weak point is that the law has not yet been repealed. Foreign Exchange Criminal Law (Law 19,359)which is still in force and “it is not known what will happen later.” Furthermore, he maintains, it is not known what the provinces will do, because some could demand, for example, Gross Income Tax for the amounts that enter the system. He clarifies that this last point is not the most relevant, but it adds to the list of disincentives.
“Another point that also discourages is what refers to apocryphal invoices. The regime establishes that if any operation involved with a taxpayer who has an apocryphal invoice is detected, that is dropped, regardless of the amount. This detail is delicate, because ‘apocryphal’ for ARCA is not only what the word says, which would be an invoice that tries to deceive in order not to pay taxes, but also many times when the supplier defaults it is considered an apocryphal invoice,” he details.
What the Tax Innocence Law implies
Balanz highlights that the new regime is not a whitewash, but it facilitates formalization, since it introduces a key principle: The taxpayer is presumed compliant, unless the State proves a relevant and intentional evasion.. It states that the regulations seek to reduce criminal prosecution for minor errors or inconsistencies, focus State resources on truly serious evasion and provide greater legal security to those who work, save and invest.
In that sense, it clarifies that the regime does not forgive taxes or legalize crimes, but it eliminates the automatic presumption of evasion based only on people’s assets or consumption. In practice, he explains, this makes it easier to use low-value undeclared savings, invest without fear that a financial operation will trigger a criminal case, and go from saving money outside the system to channeling it through the capital market. For this reason, we talk about “mattress dollars,” but “technically the law goes beyond that concept.”
One of the most important changes is the sharp increase in the amounts to consider evasion as a criminal offense. The broker maintains that the practical result is that most common breaches are now resolved in ARCA and not in criminal justice:
- The threshold for the crime of simple evasion went from $1.5 million to $100 million
- The one of aggravated evasion went from $15 million to $1,000 million
- In apocryphal invoices, went from $1.5 million to $100 million
- The pension evasion went from $200,000 to $7 million
Furthermore, the law establishes the Simplified Earnings Regimewhich is optional. It is designed for resident human persons who meet requirements such as Annual revenues up to $1 billion, equity up to $10 billion and not be a large national taxpayer. Balanz details that it works like this: ARCA proposes a sworn declaration, the taxpayer can accept it and pay it and, by accepting, obtains a “liberating effect.” Under this regime, he states, personal consumption is not audited, it is not required to justify changes in assets and only significant differences are reviewed.
“In summary, the Tax Innocence Law changes the focus of Argentine tax control, reduces the criminalization of the average taxpayer, provides predictability and legal security and improves the climate for investing without giving up control over serious evasion. In a country in which the fear of tax error often discourages savings and investment, this paradigm shift can make a real difference for those who want to take the step and invest with clearer rules,” he highlights.
More legal certainty, but lack of coordination with the provinces
“The approval of Law 27,799, known as the Tax Innocence Law, marks one of the most significant movements in decades within the Argentine tax system. The law abandons the historical logic according to which every taxpayer is, potentially, an evader, and adopts a presumption of good faithaccompanied by a more focused, modern and proportional control system,” says Alberto Mastandrea, tax partner at BDO Argentina.
Mastandrea points out that the reform is built on four main axes:
- The update of the Criminal Tax Regimein which the punishment thresholds are multiplied between 35 and 100 times to adapt to an inflationary context
- The update of sanctions in the Tax Procedure Law by correcting the disproportion generated during years of regulatory delay
- The reduction of the limitation period for compliant taxpayers, which goes from five to three yearsalthough it is only maintained as long as there is no “significant discrepancy”
- The creation of Optional Simplified Affidavit Regimewhich eliminates the obligation to report assets and consumption for certain taxpayers
“The law also establishes specific scenarios in which ARCA should not file a criminal complaint, especially when there are interpretive controversies or adjustments based solely on presumptions. At the same time, the conditions for using the so-called ‘silver bullet’ are tightened when the alleged offender chooses to withdraw from the process after ARCA files the criminal complaint, thus making access to this exceptional mechanism for closing the conflict more expensive,” he adds.
The fourth axis provides a “powerful benefit”: absolute presumption of accuracy for all statements of non-prescribed exercisessimilar to a dynamic “tax cap”. This “provides legal certainty, reduces litigation and simplifies the administrative burden, although its effectiveness will depend on coordination with the provincial treasuries, especially regarding Gross Income.”
“In addition, the law incorporates a system of automatic updating by UVA starting in 2027, as well as clear rules on the temporary validity of sanctions and an explicit invitation to the provinces and the city of Buenos Aires to harmonize criteria. Altogether, the Tax Innocence Law not only modernizes the tax system, but redefines the link between State and taxpayer. However, its success will depend on administrative implementation and the degree of adhesion of subnational jurisdictions, a true Achilles heel of the law. “new Argentine fiscal architecture”says Mastandrea.
