Cold front 45 will enter northwest Mexico this Friday, April 17, 2026, interacting with a high-altitude trough and the jet stream to generate a thermal drop, wind gusts of up to 70 km/h and heavy precipitation in much of the national territory.
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Atmospheric dynamics and frontal system effects
The interaction of current meteorological systems establishes a highly complex scenario. The entry of cold front 45 will not only bring thermal relief after recent heat waves, but will also trigger convective phenomena. The National Meteorological Service (SMN) has issued alerts for heavy rains in 17 entities, where the interaction with humidity will allow hail to fall, especially in the high areas of the center of the country and Mexico City.
Regarding wind circulation, gusts of up to 50 km/h are generally observed, although the northern states will experience higher gusts. For the country’s capital, Friday will mark a turning point with minimum temperatures of 12 °C and maximum temperatures that will not exceed 23 °C, contrasting with the intense heat recorded in previous days.
The phenomenon of extreme thermal contrast
Despite the advance of the cold air mass, the national territory is divided by the presence of an anticyclonic system. This atmospheric configuration maintains an environment of severe contrasts: while the north and center of the country begin to perceive the cooling and frigid air, entities such as Sinaloa, Nayarit, Michoacán and Guerrero continue under the dominance of maximum temperatures between 40 and 45 °C.
Regions with thermal drops and frosts
The cold air mass associated with front 45 will cause extreme minimum values in the mountain ranges:
- Chihuahua and Durango: Temperatures are estimated from -5 to 0 °C with the presence of frost.
- Baja California and Sonora: Similar conditions with potential for frost in mountain areas.
- Zacatecas, Puebla, Tlaxcala and the State of Mexico: Thermometers will read 0 to 5 °C in higher altitude regions.
45°C
Maximum detected
- Sinaloa and Nayarit 40-45°C
- Michoacán and Guerrero 40-45°C
-5°C
Minima in mountain ranges
- Chihuahua and Durango -5 to 0°C
- EdoMex, Puebla, Tlaxcala 0 to 5°C
70 km/h
Maximum speed
- Chih, Dgo, Coah 50-70km/h
- Yucatan Peninsula 40-60km/h
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Incidence of strong winds through the frontal system
The atmospheric pressure will generate an acceleration of the winds in northern Mexico:
- Gusts from 50 to 70 km/h: Chihuahua, Durango and Coahuila.
- Gusts from 40 to 60 km/h: Baja California, Sonora, Sinaloa, Zacatecas, Campeche and Yucatán.
Detailed precipitation and humidity forecast
The convergence of the front with other atmospheric systems will maintain the potential for rain in various strategic points:
- Shower intervals (5 to 25 mm): San Luis Potosí and Chiapas.
- Isolated rain: Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, Mexico City, State of Mexico, Morelos, Puebla, Guerrero and Oaxaca.
It is essential to reiterate that this rainfall activity coexists with the parallel heat wave that affects the west, maintaining the risk of high temperatures in the Pacific coastal states.
Metropolitan impact and regional variability
Monterrey and the northeast
The capital of Nuevo León will experience the most abrupt variations due to its geographical position. Wind gusts of 50 to 70 km/h are expected with the risk of whirlwind formation on Friday, April 17. The rains and thunderstorms will gain intensity towards Saturday the 18th, causing a notable drop from the initial 32 °C towards a cool and temperate environment.
Mexico City (CDMX)
The interaction of the system with the humidity of the Pacific will generate unstable conditions. Afternoon showers with lightning and hail are forecast. Although the day will remain warm (27 to 29 °C), the nights and early mornings will be cool with values of 12 to 14 °C. In addition, local dust devils are expected with gusts of up to 50 km/h.
Guadalajara and the west
In Jalisco, the influence of the cold front will be marginal. The region will remain under the control of the heat wave, with maximum temperatures of 33 to 40 °C and higher thermal sensations. The probability of rain is minimal and the winds will remain in a moderate range.
Evolution of the front in the southeast and Gulf coast
Veracruz and the “North” event
The system will reach the Veracruz coast during the weekend of April 18 and 19. A “North” event is expected with gusts of 50 to 70 km/h. The rains will be concentrated in the northern basins and mountainous areas, while night temperatures could fall to 0 to 5 °C in regions such as Cofre de Perote and Pico de Orizaba.
