With the March inflation data released by the INDEC this Tuesday, the exchange bands will adjust again: in May they will rise 3.4%, in line with price dynamics.
In this way, towards the end of the fifth month of the year the ceiling of the band for the dollar will be located at $1761.12while the floor will descend to $790.88. This is an automatic update that responds to the new mechanism implemented by the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic. Within that margin, the dollar will float freely and the BCRA will have no need to intervene, either buying (if it breaks the floor) or selling (if it passes the ceiling).
This Tuesday, the wholesale dollar cut the downward streak, advanced $10 and closed at $1,364after having fallen about $16 in the previous day. However, it remains far from the ceiling of the exchange rate band. A gap that, after knowing the inflation data, will tend to widen.
The concrete thing is that the current system establishes that both the upper and lower limits are adjusted daily until completing, throughout the month, the percentage equivalent to the most recent inflation reported by INDEC, with a lag of two months. This andexchange band scheme replaced the previous one, which contemplated a fixed update of 1% lesssual.
The inflation-adjusted bands came into force on January 2, cwith an initial floor of $914.78 and a ceiling of $1529.03. The modification sought to expand the floating margin of the exchange rate and grant it greater flexibility, in a context of exit from the exchange rate trap and normalization of the market.
The Central Bank maintains that this regime makes it possible to reduce extreme volatility and avoid sudden jumps in the price of the dollar. However, market analysts warn that the change also responds to the need to prevent the band ceiling from falling behind in real terms in the face of higher inflation.
In that sense, they point out that although the new mechanism corrects this mismatch, it could also imply a risk: transferring greater pressure to the general price level if the exchange rate follows inflation more closely.
The BCRA bought dollars again and already adds more than US$5.7 billion in 2026
He Central Bank added reserves again this Tuesday, taking advantage of the supply of foreign currency that comes from agriculture. The BCRA bought others US$185 million and it already amounts to US$5,718 million so far this year. In this way, the Gross reserves rose to US$45,873 million.
The Central Bank thus extends an unstoppable streak of dollar purchases, which began in the first days of January and was not interrupted again. And it does so in a context of the calm dollar, which remains below $1,400 and at the lowest levels in six months.
He official exchange rate cut its downward streak and registered an increase in the last roundalthough it remains near the lowest levels since October. In this context, the appreciation accumulated in recent weeks once again put the discussion of a possible exchange rate delay on the table.
In the wholesale segment, The dollar advanced $10 and closed at $1,364after having fallen about $16 in the previous day. In this way, the gap with respect to the ceiling of the exchange rate band – currently located in $1,677.45– remains around 23%. The volume traded in cash reached US$550 million, reflecting sustained activity in the market.
As for future dollar contracts, they showed mixed behavior, with increases in the shortest terms. Market projections place the exchange rate at around $1,377.5 towards the end of April, in a day in which approximately US$1,270 million.
On the retailer side, Banco Nación Argentina set the sales price at $1,385, which takes the dollar card to $1,800.5. Meanwhile, the average surveyed by the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic was $1,389.01.
Among parallel exchange rates, the cash with settlement (CCL) is trading at $1,469.51, while the MEP dollar is trading at $1,408.89. In turn, the blue dollar rises to $1,410, and the crypto dollar reaches $1,458.54 according to sector platforms.
The consulting firm Criteria highlighted that in the second week of April a short-term financial stability scenario was consolidated, driven by a combination of exchange rate appreciation, strong official intervention and rate compression. However, they warned that challenges persist: the monetary front exhibits excess liquidity and rates at minimum levels, while disinflation advances at a slower pace than expected, which generates pressure on real rates and inflation expectations.
March inflation was the highest in a year and pushes the ceiling of the exchange band
The March inflation was located in the 3.4% and, as the market and even himself had anticipated, Luis Caputoaccelerated again after two consecutive months at 2.9%. This way, recorded the highest increase in a year: the figure for March 2025 had been 3.7%.
In this way, the inflation toaccumulated in the first three months of 2026 reached the 9.4%while year-on-year inflation was 32.6%.
In this way, inflation continued with a clearly upward trend. The CPI began to climb from May 2025when it registered an increase of 1.5%. After the 1.6% in June, had a variation of 1.9% in July and August, while it was 2.1% in September, 2.3% in October, 2.5% in November, 2.8% in December and finally 2.9% in January and February.
On Monday, during a presentation, Economy Minister Luis Caputo had anticipated that March inflation would rise again. Although he anticipated that it would tend to go down later: “It will surely be above 3% because there was a shock that evidently had an obvious impact on everything related to oil.from domestic plane tickets to transportation; You have topics like education, which in March has its seasonality. Starting in April, a process of disinflation and growth is coming, the best months are coming“, held.
According to INDEC, at the category level, Regulated prices (5.1%) had the greatest increase due to adjustments in public service, transportation and education rates, followed by the core CPI (3.2%) -with a slightly lower variation than the general level- and Seasonal (1.0%), with increases linked to tourism and the change of season in clothing that offset the falls in prices of vegetables and fruits.
The division of greatest increase in the month was Education (12.1%): like every year, this increase coincides with the start of classes. The second division with the greatest increase was Transportation (4.1%) due to fuel, public transportation and air tickets.
The division with The greatest impact on the regional monthly variation was Food and non-alcoholic beveragesmainly due to the increase in Meat and derivatives (6.9% in GBA).
The two divisions that recorded the smallest variations in March 2026 were Miscellaneous goods and services (1.7%) and Home equipment and maintenance (1.3%).
