The forecast of the National Meteorological Service for this Friday, April 17, 2026 warns of a scenario of critical contrasts where heavy rains in Chiapas and possible tornadoes in the north coexist with temperatures above 45°C in much of the Mexican territory.
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Precipitation Settings and Affected States
Current atmospheric dynamics, driven by low-pressure channels and the interaction of frontal systems, stratify water risk into three specific intensity levels. Chiapas is positioned as the entity with the greatest vulnerability, where specific accumulations of 25 to 50 mm are projected, primarily affecting the coastal region. This condition increases the risk of flash flooding and increases in the levels of surface water bodies.
In a second incidence stratum, the states of Coahuila and Oaxaca will face intervals of constant showers with records of between 5 and 25 mm. For their part, Nuevo León and San Luis Potosí present a forecast of showers that, due to thermodynamic instability, could be accompanied by electric shocks and hail.
Isolated rains, with accumulations of 0.1 to 5 mm, will be present in an extensive strip that covers:
- Central Zone and Valley of Mexico: Mexico City, State of Mexico, Hidalgo, Puebla, Querétaro and Guanajuato.
- North and East Regions: Zacatecas, Tamaulipas and Veracruz.
- West and Southeast: Jalisco, Michoacán, Campeche and Quintana Roo.
Alerts for severe phenomena and risk of tornadoes
The interaction of a new cold front with a dry line over the north of the country generates conditions conducive to high-energy phenomena. A technical alert has been issued regarding the probability of the formation of whirlwinds or tornadoes in the north of Coahuila, Nuevo León and the northwest of Tamaulipas. This weather system is combined with extreme thermal contrast; While the north monitors the formation of vortexes and frosts in mountain areas, most of the country remains under a heat wave with thermal records that defy health security thresholds.
The advance of this system suggests an expansion of the storm for the weekend of April 17 to 19, projecting that rainfall will reach more than 15 states. It is estimated that for Sunday, April 19, the probability of rain in the central region of the country will increase to 75%.
Security protocol and response to contingencies
Civil Protection has established strict guidelines for risk mitigation in the home and public spaces. Waste management is a priority: the abandonment of garbage on public roads must be avoided to prevent the clogging of sewers, in addition to the exhaustive cleaning of drains and domestic sewers.
Protection measures in infrastructure and mobility
- Preventive assurance: Review of roofs and protection of windows with cushioning materials against the threat of hail.
- Supply Management: Preparation of an emergency backpack with waterproof documentation, autonomous lighting and a basic first aid kit.
- Road safety: Crossing streams, fords or flooded streets is strictly discouraged, since the force of the water flow compromises the stability of vehicles and pedestrians.
During thunderstorms, it is imperative to seek shelter in solid structures, avoiding trees or light poles. In tornado warning areas in northern Mexico, people should locate interior rooms without windows on the lowest levels of buildings. At the end of the rainfall, the sanitation of water tanks is recommended to prevent insect breeding sites and the boiling of drinking water if flooding occurs in the area.
