This is a scenario that was not in any consultant’s Excel. Not even in the officials’ drafts. But it’s real. And it comes at a right time, with an international scenario where uncertainty rules due to the war in the Middle East. And without Argentina having secured a place on Wall Street to refinance public debt maturities.
The concrete fact is that, this year, Argentine exports will touch -and could even exceed- US$100,000 million.
The scenario confirms the hypothesis launched by Javier Milei a few weeks ago in New York, when at the launch of “Argentina Week” he warned Santiago Bausili that “dollars are going to come out of his ears.”
In any case, the question underlying this reality refers to whether The Central Bank will be able to accumulate sufficient reserves to give certainty to investors, while waiting for the best moment to return to the voluntary credit markets.
The keys to the record
Argentina reached, today, a historical record for its exports. They brushed the US$22,000 million in the first quarter of the yeara 16.9% above the same period in 2025.
The trade surplus in these first three months of 2026 reached US$5,508 million.
The push of the field, the consolidation of the energy matrix and the exponential leap in metal mining and lithium are the three fundamental pillars of a projection that marks a true milestone for the national economy.
The Argentine economy is heading towards an unprecedented foreign exchange generation scenario.
Projections towards US$100,000 million
According to the projections of the consulting firm Profit-Consultores, the country’s total exports will reach around US$98,320 million.
This growth would represent a significant jump of 12.9%regarding the US$87,111 million registered in 2025.
This phenomenon is the product of the convergence of a recovery in the productivity of the agroindustrial sector and the definitive takeoff of strategic sectors such as energy and mining.
Below are the keys behind this export record.
The “engine” of agriculture
As is tradition in the Argentine commercial structure, The oilseed sector remains the main generator of dollars. By 2026, this area is expected to contribute US$29,269 millionwhich represents a positive absolute variation of US$4,223 million compared to the previous year.
Within this ecosystem, the soybean complex is the main protagonist. It is projected that its sales abroad will amount to US$25,406 millionadding up by itself almost additional US$4 billion to the trade balance compared to 2025.
These figures suggest a scenario of greater climatic stability and market conditions that allow the “field” to maximize its export potential, consolidating its role as the main supporter of the Central Bank’s reserves.
Energy and oil: the consolidation of a new giant
One of the most disruptive data in the projections for 2026 is the growth of the oil-petrochemical complex. This sector, which historically had ups and downs, is emerging as the second great engine of the economy with exports per US$15,893 million.
The expansion in this area is notable: a increase of US$4.12 billion compared to last year, an increase that competes inch by inch with the growth of the oilseed sector.
A report by Nadín Argañaraz, from the IARAF, also provides illustrative data on the new boom.
“Due to the lower price of imported energy, savings were made US$70 million and due to the lower amount of imported energy, savings were made US$70 million. The sum gives the figure of US$240 million.
A CEPA report illustrates another issue: the decline in energy imports, which left a surplus of foreign currency in the country.
“In the first quarter of 2026, the energy balance accumulated a surplus of US$2,405 million (+13.9% vs. 2025). However, this result is not explained so much by exports, which grew only 1.9%, but mainly by a significant reduction in imports (-35.7%).”
This drop in energy purchases is linked to greater local energy production.
The “boom” of mining and lithium
Mining is no longer a promise but has become a forceful reality in the trade balance. The metal mining and lithium sector will experience one of the most aggressive percentage growth, reaching US$12,174 million in 2026projected the Profit Consultores report.
The most notable thing is the magnitude of the jump: the sector will contribute additional US$4,065 million compared to 2025. This increase of 50% year-on-year reflects the launch of new projects, especially linked to lithium, the so-called “white gold”, which has attracted multimillion-dollar investments in the north of the country.
Meat: agreement with Trump
Livestock is not far behind and will contribute to the record with exports for US$7,499 million —an increase of US$1,250 million—, based on the opening of several markets, especially in the United States, thanks to the trade agreement.
The shadows: the fall of the automotive sector
Not everything is expansion on the horizon of 2026. The Profit-Consultores report warns of a significant contraction in the automotive complexwhose exports would fall from US$8,784 million in 2025 US$7,027 million in 2026. This decrease of US$1,757 million represents a warning signal for the manufacturing industry, affected by changes in regional demand.
“Will we reach the record of 100,000 million USD of exports this year? If these prices are maintained it is possible,” posted economist Roberto Arias.
The key to success for this year lies in diversification: it is no longer just about depending on the harvest, but about consolidating a model where energy and mining become pillars as robust as agriculture.
