Contrary to expectations until a few months ago, From Wall Street they believe that the Government will achieve a substantial improvement on its external front.
Specifically, Morgan Stanley (MS) -one of the giants of the financial market- projected that This year Argentina will show a surplus in its current account. And, in that context, he recommended to his clients the purchase of debt bonds in dollars.
Morgan Stanley anticipates that there will be “surplus” dollars in Argentina
The truth is that external accounts are evolving much faster than expected and The country is on track to close 2026 with a “current account surplus of 0.7% of GDP”according to MS estimates.
This milestone is reached three years earlier than originally projected by the IMFmarking a regime change that is not merely cyclical, but structural.
For the investment bank, this current account surplus will be transformed into the “best letter of introduction” of Milei’s economy to international investors.
In 2025, the current account of the country’s balance of payments closed with a deficit of US$7,582 million.
The negative balance had been marked as a fragile fact of the economy by different economists, from Domingo Cavallo to Martín Rapetti.
The keys to the surplus
According to the estimates of Morgan Stanley technicians, The current account surplus will be around US$5.4 billion this year.
This calculation is based on a record performance of the trade balance in goods, which would reach a surplus of US$28.1 billion. “For the first time, exports of goods will exceed the US$100 billion barrier, driven by three strategic sectors that today operate as a true “triple helix”:
- Energy and the “Dead Cow Effect: The energy sector is the main protagonist of this transformation. After decades of being a burden, Argentina has been consolidating an energy trade surplus projected at US$13.2 billion for this year. With oil production growing by 60% in recent years. With the price of Brent averaging US$90 (yesterday Monday it closed at US$100 per barrel), each increase of 10 dollars in the barrel adds another US$1.3 billion to the public coffers.
- Mining and the RIGI framework: Thanks to the incentives from the Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI), “we expect mining exports to double compared to last year. Lithium is the immediate driver, but copper represents the greatest long-term opportunity, with a project portfolio that exceeds US$40 billion under evaluation by the RIGI.”
- Agribusiness: Despite price volatility, agriculture continues to provide solidity. “We project income of US$28 billion from the soybean and corn complexes.” Growth this year is led by corn, with exports increasing by 15% to reach 36.3 million tons.
The battle for reserves
Despite the robust trade surplus, the accumulation of international reserves remains the central challenge of macroeconomics.
The MS base projection refers to a net accumulation of at least US$6 billion in Central Bank reserves.
However, there is one factor that could change the scale of this calculation: bilateral financing, that Luis Caputo could negotiate with other countries willing to finance Argentina.
“If the authorities manage to complete the bilateral loans (with countries such as the US, Italy or Israel) that have been mentioned recently, the accumulation of reserves could jump to US$10 billion. This additional cushion is vital not only for current stability, but also to face a 2027 that appears to be more demanding in terms of debt maturities,” supported the MS report.
Wall Street giant recommends Argentine bonds
In the field of fixed income, the recommendation for MS clients is clear: “Stay long in sovereign bonds.”
After a period of relative underperformance, bonds returned to price levels that make them highly attractive relative to their emerging market peers.
The investment thesis is based on the fact that macroeconomic fundamentals (fiscal adjustment and reserve accumulation) are exceeding market expectations.
In addition, the Government demonstrated an “intelligent” financing strategy, by prioritizing domestic tenders to cover maturities and avoiding, for now, having to validate high interest rates in international markets.
The bonds mentioned in the report are long-term ones, such as the one that matures in 2038, since they are the ones that show the most attractive prices.
THE BEST LETTER
For Wall Street analysts, Argentina “is achieving what seemed impossible: transform its productive matrix while organizing its external accounts.
The move from a chronic deficit to a current account surplus of $5.4 billion “is the best letter of introduction to normalize access to the capital market.”
