The National Meteorological Service confirms that cold front 45 will cause heavy precipitation, electrical shocks and a pronounced thermal drop due to a polar air mass between April 17 and 20 in much of the Mexican territory.
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Irruption of the frontal system and immediate effects
The interaction of a dry line in the north with the subtropical jet stream triggers severe instability conditions. During the transition from Thursday to Friday, showers with hail are expected in Coahuila, in addition to isolated rains with electrical activity in Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, Zacatecas and San Luis Potosí.
The atmospheric dynamism will generate winds with gusts of 50 to 70 km/h in Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua and Durango. In regions such as Baja California Sur, Sinaloa and the Yucatan Peninsula, gusts will range between 40 and 60 km/h. Surveillance is critical in the north of Coahuila due to the possible formation of whirlwinds.
Precipitation and humidity dynamics
Low pressure channels in the interior of the country, fed by the humidity of both coastlines, increase the risk of heavy occasional rains on the coast of Chiapas. The forecast extends the probability of isolated rains and electric shocks to sectors of Jalisco, Michoacán, the Bajío, the Valley of Mexico and the Gulf slope.
- Chiapas (Coast): Heavy occasional rains of 25 to 50 mm.
- Coahuila and Oaxaca: Intervals of constant showers.
- West and Center: Isolated showers with scattered electrical activity.
Thermal configuration and residual heat wave
Despite the polar mass, an anticyclonic circulation maintains extreme temperatures in the west and south. Jalisco, Michoacán, Guerrero, Morelos and Oaxaca face maximums of 40 to 45 °C. In contrast, the mountain areas of Chihuahua and Durango will register minimums of -5 to 0 °C with morning frosts.
Detailed forecast for the Valley of Mexico
The region will experience cool mornings with partial cloudiness, evolving to warm environments in the afternoon. The State of Mexico has the potential for isolated rains with electrical shocks, while Mexico City will remain without precipitation.
- CDMX: Minimum temperature 13 to 15 °C; maximum 28 to 30 °C.
- Toluca: Minimum 7 to 9 °C; maximum 24 to 26 °C.
- Winds: Northern component from 10 to 20 km/h with gusts of 40 km/h.
Evolution of the system towards the end of the week
On Saturday, cold front 45 will position itself over the north, intensifying the rains in Coahuila, Nuevo León and Tamaulipas. For Sunday and Monday, the system will move through the northeast and the Gulf coast, interacting with internal low pressure channels to generate very heavy rains and a generalized thermal decrease in the east and center of the country.
- Wind gusts: Risk of falling trees and advertising structures.
- Bodies of water: Danger of rising river levels, landslides and flooding.
- Maritime conditions: Waves of 2.5 to 3.5 meters due to swell in the Pacific.
